
這位目前649萬訂閱的Youtuber,英文很好、印度口音非常重,但還是非常厲害: 遣詞用字道地、文法句法也幾乎都正確(雖然有很少數地方有小錯,但瑕不掩瑜),最重要的是他說的內容不錯,所以,他YT的訂閱數很高。
由於他的印度口音咬字很重,整支聽時需要很專注,專注久了就累,所以聽完後覺得鬆了一口氣,也覺得聽完很值得,因為他說的內容很棒,讓我思考和注意到一些科技發展和創業的事情,難怪他至今會有649萬訂閱者。
在此之前,我也聽過不少印度母語者說一長串的英文,說得最長最多的是我邊做家事邊聽的印度新聞台WION的英文新聞影片(YOUTUBE搜尋WION即可收看),他們的口音都沒有這位Youtuber的口音重,所以,在這位之前,我並不覺得印度母語者說英文有多難懂~
直到這位印度裔的YOUTUBER,他的名字是Ganeshprasad Sridharan,真的是讓我見識到了,他說的很多地方如果沒有字幕的話,我會聽不懂--- 但這也不是怪他,就是自己的印度腔英文的經驗值不夠,如果把他所有影片通通都拿來聽懂的話,印度腔經驗值應該會上升不少~
想想看我們很多台灣人、應該說整個東亞很多人都是在說英文時,經常會自己綁手綁腳的; 也有部分人會批評別人的口音,但看看人家印度人都不會因為口音腔調很重而膽怯說英文~
更何況台灣人就算說英文有口音,大部分人的口音也都比印度人的輕得多,所以,儘管追求如同英語母語者的口音是好事、雖然說長期而言糾正口音成更趨近母語者也是一個學英文的動力,但卻不該因此而被綁手綁腳的:
平日就要常開口練英文,需要說英文的時候更要大膽說出口、不要被發音、口音、文法…等等的綁手綁腳喔~
|以下為他這支影片的字幕轉錄稿,是我從YT頁面上複製下來的,我修改了一些轉錄稿上的錯誤,但目前沒有全部地方都修改到|
0:02
How do you think about this bubble talk
0:03
that has been going on for the last few
0:05
months especially?
0:09
I mean I I think it's quite possible.
0:12
Ladies and gentlemen, on 25th of June
0:14
2026, Apple did something that it has
0:16
never done in its history. In the middle
0:19
of the year for no new product, it just
0:22
raised prices. MacBook Air is up by 18%,
0:25
iPad Pro is up by 20% and Apple TV is up
0:29
by 54%.
0:33
Apple said yesterday it is immediately
0:35
raising prices on the products.
0:36
The company says soaring memory chip
0:38
prices are driving up costs and the
0:40
[music] AI boom is a major factor behind
0:42
the surge.
0:42
The AI trade is leading to real
0:45
near-term inflation.
0:48
And when asked why, Apple said something
0:50
remarkable. They said, "We have never
0:53
seen a competent price increase this
0:55
much this quickly." And the reason your
0:57
laptop got more expensive is because of
1:00
a war being fought over tiny memory
1:02
chips thousands of kilometers away. And
1:04
look at this graph. In 2020, before Chad
1:07
GBD existed, the four biggest US tech
1:10
companies spent combined $90 billion on
1:13
capeex. In 2023, they spent $147
1:16
billion. In 2025 that number went up to
1:20
$410 billion and then in 2026 it is up
1:25
to $725 billion. So in 6 years the capex
1:30
has grown 8x and all of this is coming
1:33
just from Amazon, Meta, Google and
1:36
Microsoft. At the same time, the stock
1:38
market was going so crazy over the AI
1:40
wave that on 2nd of June 2026, Nvidia
1:43
was worth $5 trillion and analysts were
1:46
screaming to buy AI stocks.
1:48
The AI will be a pretty [music] good
1:50
thing to invest in.
1:51
It is going to be, I think, just a
1:53
booming year for AI and tech stocks,
1:55
[music] especially in the first half of
1:57
the year.
1:57
But just 3 days later, something started
2:00
cracking. Nvidia lost $320 billion in
2:04
market cap. By 24th June, Micron was
2:06
down by 13%, SanDisk was down by 10.59%,
2:11
Apple fell by 6.1% and Soft Bank tanked
2:14
12%. On top of that, OpenAI delayed its
2:17
IPO and slowly warnings are coming from
2:20
the smartest people on earth. We are
2:22
right now rising close to the same level
2:25
in 2010.
2:26
So what's the end? Is it a bubble that
2:28
bursts eventually?
2:29
I think it is. Yes. The problem with the
2:31
AI capex boom is not only is it immense
2:34
but a big chunk of it is funded with
2:36
debt and that pain doesn't stay
2:38
restricted. It spills over into the rest
2:42
of society. The second thing that
2:43
happens when people get very excited as
2:46
they are today about artificial
2:47
intelligence for example is every
2:50
experiment gets funded. This is a kind
2:53
of industrial bubble as opposed to
2:55
financial bubbles. Now looking at this
2:57
madness, I went back to understand all
2:59
the bubbles in history. I read the Wall
3:01
Street Journal, the Financial Times, the
3:03
CNBC transcripts and even the JP Morgan
3:05
gap analysis to understand why does Ray
3:08
Dalio call this a textbook example of a
3:10
bubble. And by the end of this video,
3:11
you will understand better than 99% of
3:13
Indian investors, whether this is the
3:15
greatest business bet in human history
3:16
or the greatest bubble ever inflated.
3:18
Why are Michael Bur, Ray Dalio, and Jeff
3:20
Bezos implying that this is a bubble?
3:23
And what happens when this bubble bursts?
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--------------------正文開始-------------------------------------------------
4:44
[music]
4:46
This is the story of one of the greatest
4:48
bets in human history. Before we go
4:50
anywhere, let me install a mental model
4:52
in your head. Because if you don't
4:53
understand what a data center actually
4:54
is, none of the numbers will make sense.
4:56
Imagine your phone. When you type a
4:58
question into Chad Gupty, your phone
5:00
doesn't just answer by [music] itself.
5:02
Your phone is just a screen with Wi-Fi.
5:04
The actual thinking happens somewhere
5:06
else in a warehouse. A giant windowless
5:09
industrial warehouse which is filled
5:11
with metal racks. And each rack is
5:13
installed with thousands of these
5:15
[music] chips. That warehouse is called
5:17
a data center. Each one of these
5:19
buildings can hold 100,000 Nvidia GPUs.
5:22
Each Nvidia GPU cost 30 to $40,000.
5:26
So one building holds 3 to4 billion
5:29
worth of chips. One building just holds
5:32
[music]
5:33
3 to4 billion worth of chips. This 3 to4
5:37
billion is [music] just for chips. On
5:40
top of that, you have to power them,
5:42
cool them, connect them with [music]
5:43
high-speed cables and build them with
5:46
concrete, security, and fire
5:47
suppression. All in all, a single large
5:50
AI data center cost 10 to 25 billion to
5:53
build. [music] And this is where the
5:55
race is happening. Like I told you in
5:57
the data center case study, if you look
5:58
at this graph, in 2010, the world
6:01
created or replicated two zettabytes of
6:03
data. That's roughly 2 trillion GB. But
6:06
fast forward to today, something
6:08
terrifying is happening. By 2026, the
6:11
[music] world is projected to generate
6:13
221 zetabytes of data. That's over 100x
6:16
more than in 2010. So, the world is
6:20
producing more data in a month than it
6:22
did in all of history until 2010. This
6:25
is the reason why the investment in data
6:27
centers has shot up from $90 billion to
6:29
$725 billion in just the last 6 years.
6:33
Now, here's a number that made me
6:35
question everything that is happening.
6:36
The PIMCO report says that big tech
6:39
capeex will consume 94% of operating
6:42
cash flows. I repeat 94% of operating
6:46
cash flows over the next 2 years. You
6:49
know what that means? If big tech earns
6:52
$100, they will spend $94 back into
6:55
building AI infrastructure. Only $6 will
6:58
be left for dividends, buybacks, salary
7:01
hikes, innovation, and everything else.
7:04
In 2023, that same ratio was just 40%.
7:07
And now it stands at 94%. So do you
7:10
realize big tech is betting 94% of all
7:14
its money into just one assumption. And
7:16
the assumption says that in just 5
7:18
years, the world will need so much AI
7:21
compute that every dollar being spent
7:23
right now will practically look like a
7:25
bargain. Sounds unstoppable, right?
7:27
After all, we are producing so much
7:29
data. Well, here's where it gets
7:31
dangerous. Now, let's forget economics
7:33
for a second and just imagine that you
7:34
are a business owner. Let's say you
7:36
spend $10 million building a coffee
7:38
machine factory. Now, imagine that after
7:40
all that, your factory only sells
7:42
$400,000 worth of coffee machines in a
7:45
year. So, you just make $400,000 from a
7:48
factory that cost you $10 million. Is
7:51
that good, bad, or terrible? You tell
7:53
me. It's terrible, right? Why would you
7:56
build another factory if your current
7:57
factory doesn't make any money? Now take
8:00
that exact same example and apply it to
8:02
AI. Now let me show you the math. JP
8:05
Morgan sat down and did this calculation
8:07
and the logic is pretty simple. If
8:09
you're an investor and you put money
8:10
into something, you would at least
8:12
expect a 10% return. That's bare minimum
8:14
any serious investor demands on a risky
8:16
bet like this. So JP Morgan said for AI
8:18
giants to justify all the money that
8:20
they're spending, how much money does AI
8:22
actually need to bring in every year?
8:24
The answer was $650 billion every single
8:28
year. Okay, now remember this figure,
8:31
$650 billion. Now, do you know how much
8:34
AI is actually earning right now? Let's
8:36
add it up. OpenAI, the makers of Chad
8:38
GBT, make $25 billion a year, and
8:40
they're losing $14 billion a year.
8:43
Anthropic is set to make $47 billion at
8:45
best if their current run rate goes on
8:47
for one year. As of now, the target for
8:50
Anthropic is about $26 billion by the
8:52
end of this year. And let's say Gemini
8:54
also makes $25 billion. So every major
8:57
AI model company combined make around
9:00
$75 billion with OpenAI losing 14
9:03
billion and Anthropic losing 3 billion
9:06
in 2025 alone. Now put these three
9:08
numbers side by side. Money that AI
9:10
needs to earn to make sense $650
9:12
billion. Money AI is actually earning
9:16
$75 billion. Money that AI is losing is
9:19
minimum $17 billion. But the money that
9:21
the giants are spending on top of all of
9:23
this is $725 billion. That difference
9:28
between what they earn and what they
9:30
need to earn is about 9 to 10 times. Now
9:34
read that one more time slowly. For
9:36
every single dollar that the AI industry
9:38
is bringing in, the tech giants are
9:41
spending 9 to 10 times more than they
9:44
earn. This is why SEOA's David Khan
9:46
calls this the $600 billion question. a
9:49
$600 billion annual revenue deficit that
9:52
nobody knows who will fill. Now the
9:53
single biggest argument against this
9:55
crazy number is Ganesh enterprises will
9:57
pay money. Every single one of these
9:59
companies will become profitable and
10:01
investors will make money when the
10:03
enterprises will pay money because AI is
10:06
making all enterprises very very
10:07
efficient at dirt cheap cost. Okay.
10:11
Well, that is not the right argument
10:14
because even I thought the same and then
10:15
I found the service. McKenzie says 73%
10:18
of enterprise AI deployments are failing
10:20
to achieve projected return on
10:22
investment. BCG says only 5% of
10:25
companies are seeing substantial ROI
10:26
from AI. MIT says there is a 95% failure
10:29
rate in achieving measurable financial
10:31
returns. Only 29% of the executives can
10:33
even measure their AI return on
10:35
investment. And this is where the story
10:38
gets its first phase. Meet Flo. He runs
10:40
an AI startup in San Francisco called
10:42
Lindy. They have about 25 employees. In
10:45
June 2026, he did an interview with CNBC
10:47
that shook the AI industry. His team was
10:50
spending more on Anthropic Cloud API
10:52
than on their entire payroll. So, you
10:55
know what Flo did? Flo switched 100% of
10:57
his traffic to Deep Seek and his cost
10:59
dropped by 90%. And then Uber CTO
11:01
admitted publicly that Uber had blown
11:03
its entire annual AI budget in just 4
11:06
months. And that ladies and gentlemen is
11:09
the twist because everyone assumed that
11:11
enterprises would keep paying more and
11:13
more for AI tokens forever. That was the
11:16
whole model. That is why OpenAI is worth
11:18
$850 billion. That is why Anthropic is
11:21
worth $965 billion. But in June 2026,
11:24
Enterprise started doing something that
11:25
the market did not expect. They started
11:28
looking for cheaper alternatives. Which
11:30
is why Alex Karp, the CEO of Palanteer
11:33
went on CNBC and said this on 1st of
11:35
July. Every single enterprise I deal
11:38
with, they're like, I am paying for
11:39
tokens that create no value. These
11:42
people are stealing the weights and
11:43
alpha of my business and they're
11:45
creating a wealth tax. And the reason
11:46
for it is because [music] these models
11:49
have been completely over irresponsibly
11:51
oversold. And Palanteer, if you saw our
11:53
previous case study, is one of the
11:55
biggest software enterprise companies on
11:57
earth. They sell to the CIA, the US
11:59
government, Airbnb, JP Morgan, and god
12:02
knows how many large companies. and the
12:05
CEO of that company is telling you that
12:07
something has completely gone wrong.
12:09
Now, at this point, I know exactly what
12:11
you're thinking. You must be thinking,
12:12
"Yeah, Ganesh, this is a rich man's
12:14
problem. Nvidia losing 500 billion, Sam,
12:16
Dario, Sundar, they're all billionaires.
12:18
How am I getting affected by all of
12:20
this?" Well, let me take you to South
12:22
Korea and show you how.
12:26
This is a factory in South Korea that is
12:27
owned by Samsung. This factory makes a
12:30
very specific kind of memory chip called
12:32
DM. the same DAM that goes into your
12:34
laptop, your smartphone, your Xbox, and
12:37
even your washing machine. In 2024,
12:39
Samsung had a choice. It could sell its
12:41
DAM to consumer companies like Apple,
12:43
HP, or Dell. Or it could sell a special
12:47
extremely expensive version called high
12:50
bandwidth memory to AI data centers. And
12:53
guess which one pays more? The AI data
12:56
centers paid 10x more per module. So
13:00
Samsung, SKH Highix and Micron, the
13:02
three companies that control 90% of the
13:04
world's memory chip supply, did what
13:06
[music] any factory would do. They
13:08
shifted 93% of their production towards
13:11
AI memory because that is a rule of
13:13
capitalism, right? Capital always flows
13:15
to the highest bidder. Now watch what
13:17
happens at bigger scales. DM prices are
13:20
up by 171% year-over-year as of March
13:23
2026. DDR5 memory are up 4x since
13:27
September 2025. A contract price for PC
13:29
memory is up by 105 to 110% in one
13:32
quarter. In fact, Dell CEO said that the
13:34
price of 1 GB of DAM went from 0.43 to
13:37
$2.39 in just 6 months. That is a 5 and
13:41
a half times increase in price. In fact,
13:43
that is why on 25th of June 2026, Apple
13:46
did something that it had never done
13:47
before. In the middle of a product year,
13:50
Apple simply raised their prices. This
13:52
is the reason why they said, "We have
13:54
never seen a competent price increase
13:56
this much this quickly. We've shielded
13:58
our customers from these increases so
14:00
far. But now we've reached a point where
14:02
we need to begin raising prices. Now
14:04
that is Apple telling you this guys. The
14:06
richest most vertically integrated tech
14:08
company in the world is telling you that
14:10
they cannot absorb this cost. That is
14:13
how you are paying the AI tax. But this
14:16
is where a scary question arises. If
14:19
enterprises are moving off claw to save
14:21
90%. If Apple cannot absorb cost
14:24
anymore, if the ROI is broken, then why
14:27
are Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta
14:29
still spending more? Well, the answer is
14:32
one of the most fascinating concepts in
14:34
economics, and it explains every single
14:36
bubble in human history. It's called the
14:38
capital cycle. [music] In this cycle,
14:40
there are four steps. Step number one,
14:42
high returns attract capital. Step
14:44
number two, capital keeps flowing until
14:47
over capacity is built. Step three,
14:49
return over capacity eventually results
14:51
into collapse. And step four, everyone
14:54
dies except a few survivors who
14:56
eventually make a fortune when demand
14:58
catches up. And every bubble in modern
15:00
history has followed this exact same
15:02
pattern. Let me show you how. In 1996,
15:05
the US passed the Telecommunications Act
15:07
because just like AI, the internet back
15:09
then was a life-changing technology
15:11
which was exploding in demand. The story
15:13
was so intoxicating because it was clear
15:15
to the world that internet was the
15:17
future. Data traffic was exploding and
15:19
everybody just knew that bandwidth
15:21
demand would grow forever. Some founders
15:24
even believed that internet traffic
15:26
would double every 3 months. So money
15:28
came pouring in to build the fiber optic
15:31
cables. And then came the flood. Several
15:33
companies raised to lay fiber optic
15:34
cables across the country. And in just 5
15:37
years after that act, telecom companies
15:39
poured more than $500 billion into
15:41
cables, switches and networks. And if
15:43
you look at the financials of these
15:44
companies, you will see why the AI
15:46
bubble is very similar. A company called
15:48
Global Crossing went from a small equity
15:50
check to a $47 billion valuation without
15:54
ever making a single year of profit.
15:56
Corvis, a fiber equipment startup,
15:57
pulled off a $1.1 billion IPO with
16:00
literally 0 in revenue and carried a $32
16:03
billion market cap. And just when
16:05
everyone thought they'll become
16:06
millionaires and billionaires, the
16:08
collapse happened. You know what
16:10
happened? Everyone thought that the
16:12
internet will explode by 1,000% year on
16:14
year, but the internet traffic only
16:16
exploded by 100% year on year, which was
16:18
great, but not great enough to justify
16:21
the cost of investment. You know how
16:23
much of this installed fiber was
16:24
actually utilized? Take a guess. 50%,
16:28
20%, [music]
16:30
10%, at least 5% must have been
16:32
utilized, right? Well, guess what? By
16:34
early 2000s, as little as just 2.7% of
16:38
the installed fiber was actually
16:40
carrying data. Over 95% sat unused
16:43
underground. That is how trillions of
16:45
dollars of cable got buried without
16:46
earning anything. So when there was no
16:48
revenue, bandwidth prices collapsed by
16:50
up to 90% and the giant started failing.
16:53
WorldCom, after hiding $3.8 billion of
16:55
expenses to fake profits, filed the
16:57
biggest bankruptcy in US history. Global
16:59
Crossing, that $47 billion darling went
17:01
bankrupt. And in total, the telecom
17:03
crash wiped out $2 trillion of market
17:05
value with stocks going down by 95%. And
17:08
then [music] came step four, the
17:10
survivors. Now, here's where the twist
17:13
comes in which makes it the perfect
17:14
mirror for AI. Those fiber optic cables
17:17
did not vanish. They stayed in the
17:19
ground and within a few years, demand
17:21
finally arrived. YouTube happened,
17:23
streaming started, cloud storage became
17:25
a real thing, and [music] smartphone
17:27
became popular. And suddenly the world
17:29
needed exactly what had been overbuilt.
17:32
So the survivors bought the wreckage for
17:34
dirt cheap prices and that wasted cable
17:36
became the physical backbone of the
17:38
modern internet. The same infrastructure
17:40
that made Google, Netflix [music] and
17:42
AWS possible. So do you realize that
17:45
technology was real? The internet did
17:47
change everything but the bubble still
17:49
burst. Why? Because the demand was
17:51
exploding but not so much to justify
17:53
over capacity. So the technology
17:55
survived but the companies that built
17:57
did not. Now, here's what the pattern
17:58
looks like. Britain in 1846 authorized
18:01
9,500 miles of track and one/ird of it
18:03
never got built. And then the bubble
18:05
burst. America in 2000 laid millions of
18:07
miles of fiber and 97% of it was unused
18:10
and eventually the bubble burst. In
18:12
2026, America alone is building 725
18:16
billion of data centers per year and we
18:19
don't know how much of it will actually
18:21
be used. So the question is, will it all
18:22
be worth it and become the greatest tech
18:24
story ever told? Or will it go down as
18:27
the greatest bubble in world history?
18:29
Only time can give us the answer. So is
18:32
this definitely a bubble? Well, we don't
18:34
know that yet. Why? Because the
18:35
companies in the telecom bubble were
18:37
funded by debt and they were losing
18:38
money. But Nvidia earned $120 billion in
18:41
net income last year. And Microsoft,
18:43
Google, and Amazon are literally the
18:44
most profitable enterprises in human
18:46
history. So they won't collapse like
18:47
other weak companies. Similarly, at the
18:49
2000.com peak, the NASDAQ 100 forward PE
18:53
was about 60x. Today, it's around 26x.
18:56
It's higher than normal, but nowhere
18:58
near the insanity of 1999. So, if anyone
19:01
tells you for certain that this is a
19:02
bubble, they're lying to you. And anyone
19:04
tells you that it is definitely not a
19:06
bubble is also lying to you because the
19:08
truth is uncomfortable and it's
19:09
somewhere in between. There is a very
19:11
high possibility of a bubble, but not a
19:13
certainty. The technology is real, the
19:15
revenue is real, and we're not betting
19:17
on whether AI changes the world or not.
19:18
We are betting on whether the price for
19:20
it actually makes sense or not. So now
19:23
the question is what exactly is going to
19:24
happen if the bubble burst? And what if
19:26
it doesn't? Well, there are two
19:29
possibilities. Path one, the bubble
19:31
pops, jobs are lost, the NASDAQ crashes,
19:34
and every big tech company slams the
19:36
brakes on spending, and that spending is
19:38
what feeds our Indian IT and service
19:40
sector. So your cousin's first coding
19:42
job disappears before the boom can catch
19:44
him. Path two is that the bubble doesn't
19:46
pop. Instead, to justify those trillion
19:48
dollar valuations, the company will try
19:49
to race towards profit. So the price of
19:51
AI, as in the token cost will shoot up
19:53
and suddenly only the giants will be
19:55
able to afford AI. So the cheap AI tools
19:57
that you use today will eventually
19:59
become a luxury. So a lot of AI products
20:01
might die not because the tech failed,
20:03
but because it just got too expensive to
20:04
run. Or lastly, we could expect a
20:07
miracle that will drop down the token
20:09
cost, will make enterprises pay, and
20:11
everyone will make money. But that, my
20:14
dear friends, is a teeny tiny
20:16
possibility. This, my dear friends, is
20:18
the story of the AI bubble. Now, you
20:19
tell me in the comments what do you
20:20
think about the situation with the
20:22
trillion dollar valuation that we’ve
20:23
seen. Is this really a bubble or is
20:25
this the greatest bet humanity has ever
20:27
taken? That's all from my side for
20:29
today, guys. If you learned something
20:30
valuable from this history, please
20:32
hit the like button to support our work.
20:34
And for more such business and political
20:35
histories, please subscribe to our
20:37
channel. Thank you so much for watching.
20:38
I will see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
20:50
[music]
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcckBmkauBQ&t=497s